31 december was het zo ver, we zaten aan de radio gekluisterd om de Tijdloze op de voet te volgen. Op plaats 93 noteerden we onze eerste voltreffer en hoe dichter we bij de top 10 kwamen, hoe beter onze voorspelling (zie blogpost: De Tijdloze van StuBru: onze Power BI-voorspelling) . Negen van de tien nummers uit de top 10 hadden we voorspeld en drie hiervan hadden de voorspelde ranking.
Het succes is te danken aan het time series algoritme (ARIMA). Dit algoritme zoekt verbanden doorheen de tijd. De keerzijde van dit algoritme bestaat erin dat elk nummer minimaal vijf keer moet voorkomen in de geschiedenis van de Tijdloze om hierop voorspellingen te kunnen uitvoeren. Indien een nummer minder dan vijf keer in De Tijdloze voorkomt, heeft het algoritme te weinig meetwaarden om een verband te zoeken doorheen de tijd. Door dit nadeel hebben we voor een aantal nummers geen voorspelling kunnen uitvoeren. Alsook kozen we ervoor om in deze eerste editie van ons predictive model geen voorspellingen te doen op nieuwe nummers.
Volgend jaar doen we deze voorspelling gegarandeerd opnieuw, en dan streven we naar een nauwkeuriger model. Met onze voorspellingen bij de hand is het ideaal om een top 10-gokje te wagen met je vrienden, de credits geef je dan wel aan Kohera, toch? ????
Bekijk hier ons rapport:
Wil je zelf aan de slag met ons Power BI-rapport. Vul je gegevens in en we bezorgen je het .pbix-bestand via mail.
[contact-form-7 id=”24652″ title=”Download het Tijdloze Power BI-rapport 2019″]
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